pe, in part because current methods cannot separate the distinct contributions of the acute (before three months) and chronic (after three months) slopes for treatment effects on clinical endpoints. Methods: We estimated treatment effects on the acute and chronic GFR slopes and on the established clinical endpoint (CE) of kidney failure or serum creatinine doubling for 66 randomized treatment comparisons from previous CKD clinical trials. We used a novel Bayesian meta-regression framework to relate treatment effects on the established CE to both the acute and chronic slopes in a single multivariable model to determine the independent contributions of the acute and chronic slopes. Results: Treatment effects on both the acute and chronic slopes independently predicted the treatment effect on the established CE with a high median R2 (95% credible interval) of 0.95 (0.79,1.00). For a fixed treatment effect on the chronic slope, each 1 mL/min/1.73m2 greater acute GFR decline for the treatme

pe, in part because current methods cannot separate the distinct contributions of the acute (before three months) and chronic (after three months) slopes for treatment effects on clinical endpoints. Methods: We estimated treatment effects on the acute and chronic GFR slopes and on the established clinical endpoint (CE) of kidney failure or serum creatinine doubling for 66 randomized treatment comparisons from previous CKD clinical trials. We used a novel Bayesian meta-regression framework to relate treatment effects on the established CE to both the acute and chronic slopes in a single multivariable model to determine the independent contributions of the acute and chronic slopes. Results: Treatment effects on both the acute and chronic slopes independently predicted the treatment effect on the established CE with a high median R2 (95% credible interval) of 0.95 (0.79,1.00). For a fixed treatment effect on the chronic slope, each 1 mL/min/1.73m2 greater acute GFR decline for the treatme